Yutaka Takagi Assesses Hiroshima Carp’s Three Key Free Agents: “No Team Needs to Go Out of Its Way to Sign Shogo Sakakura”

Three Hiroshima Carp players are expected to draw considerable attention in this offseason’s free-agent market: Shogo Sakakura, Masato Morishita and Hiroki Tokoda.

Sakakura offers offensive ability as a catcher and infielder, while Morishita and Tokoda have established themselves as proven starting pitchers. If they exercise their free-agent rights, all three could attract interest from rival clubs.

But how likely is each player to leave Hiroshima, and which teams might pursue them? Yutaka Takagi, a former star with the Yokohama Taiyo Whales, now the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, who works as a baseball analyst and YouTuber, shared his assessment.

Will Sakakura Stay in Hiroshima?

Q: Do you think Sakakura will exercise his free-agent rights? He has produced respectable numbers this season despite the team's struggles, including some appearances as the cleanup hitter.

Yutaka Takagi: Hiroshima will do everything it can to keep him, especially after releasing players such as Kaito Kozono and Masaya Yano and considering how thin the roster has become.

But I don't think Sakakura's defense at third base is good enough for other teams to use him there. Every team already has players at first base, too.

If he could continue catching while putting up this year's numbers — a .251 batting average, 15 home runs, 74 RBIs and a .725 OPS — he would have had a better chance of attracting interest.

From Sakakura's perspective, though, being effectively told that he wasn't good enough as a catcher pushed him to concentrate on hitting. And he has to consider what he can do with Hiroshima's current lack of depth. Taking all that into account, I have a feeling he'll stay. I think Hiroshima is the team that will value him the most.

Q: Could another team sign him primarily as a catcher?

Takagi: I think that's highly unlikely. He has issues with throwing out runners attempting to steal, and his hitting numbers have also differed significantly depending on where he plays. He hit in the high .200s when playing first base, but in the high .100s when catching. It's clear that catching has negatively affected his offense.

Other teams already have good catchers, so I don't think anyone needs to go out of their way to sign Sakakura specifically as a catcher. Some clubs might see him as a player who can fill in behind the plate when needed, but I don't expect many teams to pursue him for that role.

How Will the Introduction of the DH Affect Sakakura?

Q: The Central League will introduce the designated hitter next season. Could that change the situation?

Takagi: I wouldn't say it will have no effect, but I'd want a designated hitter to hit around 30 home runs. Based on Sakakura's track record, I would expect something closer to 15, which is a little underwhelming for a full-time DH. He could potentially hit close to .300, though.

When Sakakura plays first or third base, it creates something of a logjam among Hiroshima's infielders, including Elehuris Montero. With the DH, Montero could take that spot, allowing Sakakura to settle in at first base. That would give Hiroshima more reason to make a serious effort to retain him. If Sakakura leaves as well, I don't think the Carp will be able to compete.

Q: If Sakakura does become a free agent, which teams might try to sign him?

Takagi: Sakakura is a good hitter, but I don't think any team needs to make an extraordinary effort to sign him.

Among Pacific League teams, SoftBank already has Hotaka Yamakawa, who would have to compete for playing time at first base. Orix would probably prefer to use Ryosuke Ota at second base, but concerns about his defense there sometimes lead the team to play him at first. They would likely want to keep using him there.

Lotte has reportedly begun looking into Sakakura as a potential target if he exercises his rights, but some of its younger players are developing. Rakuten's infield is also taking shape. Nippon-Ham has struggled with errors, so I don't see them taking on another player who could increase that risk. Seibu already has Tyler Nevin at first base.

In the Central League, the Giants are a possibility. They aren't particularly concerned about having too many players at a position and sometimes sign someone simply because they feel he would be useful. They could, for example, use Bobby Dalbec as the DH and put Sakakura at first base.

If Sakakura declares himself a free agent, the Giants may be the only team I can see making a serious move for him.

Morishita and Tokoda Could Attract Plenty of Interest

Q: What is your assessment of starting pitcher Masato Morishita, who has recorded 60 career wins against 59 losses and has established himself as a reliable rotation option?

Takagi: I have a feeling he'll exercise his free-agent rights. It must be difficult to pitch with so little run support, and I think he will leave.

That has been a problem this season, when he went 7–11, and last season, too. Despite posting a 2.48 ERA in 2025, he finished with a 6–14 record. He's a pitcher who could have won many more games if he'd received better offensive support.

Q: Which teams might pursue him?

Takagi: It wouldn't surprise me if any team made a move. Even within the Central League, the Giants always want as many pitchers as possible, and DeNA and Yakult are in similar situations. Chunichi also has veteran starters such as Yudai Ohno and Hideaki Wakui, so they could use another reliable arm.

Morishita was briefly removed from the active roster this season, but after returning, he continued to pitch well. He simply wasn't getting the runs he needed to win. If I were evaluating him, I'd value him as though he had won 10 games.

Q: What about Hiroki Tokoda, who has 65 career wins against 59 losses?

Takagi: I think plenty of teams will want Tokoda, just as they will Morishita.

Orix is one example. The future of Anderson Espinoza, who won the most games in the league, remains uncertain, while the return dates of Hiroya Miyagi and Shunpeita Yamashita following surgery are also unclear. Orix needs more starting pitchers it can count on.

There is already a precedent: Allen Kuri, now one of Orix's key starters, moved there from Hiroshima. Tokoda could be an attractive target for similar reasons.

Like Morishita, Tokoda has often pitched well without receiving enough run support. Defensive errors have also hurt him. I imagine he would want to play for a team where he has a better chance of winning. His ERA this season was 2.76, and with a team that scores a reasonable number of runs, I think he could win 10 games.

However, Morishita's decision could affect Tokoda's options. If Morishita leaves, Tokoda might become even more valuable to Hiroshima in contract negotiations, giving him another reason to consider staying. There could be some strategic maneuvering between the two situations.

In any case, there is no doubt that Sakakura, Morishita and Tokoda will be among the biggest names to watch in this year's free-agent market.

The second part of the interview examines the futures of Hanshin's free agents and predicts how other Central League teams may approach the offseason.

About Yutaka Takagi

Yutaka Takagi was born in Yamaguchi Prefecture on October 22, 1958. He joined the Yokohama Taiyo Whales, now the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, as a third-round draft pick in 1980 after attending Chuo University.

He established himself as a starting second baseman and became part of the famous “Super Car Trio” alongside Hirokazu Kato and Kaname Yashiki. His playing honors included three Best Nine awards and one stolen-base title.

Takagi retired in 1994 with a .297 career batting average, 1,716 hits and 321 stolen bases. He later served as Japan's defense and baserunning coach for the 2004 Athens Olympics team and coached DeNA for two seasons beginning in 2012. He remains active as a baseball commentator and television personality, and his YouTube channel, launched in 2018, has also become popular.